| Sports |
by Frank Senge Kolma
The game political parties play
IT is all a game. The strategy is to
keep the opponent guessing.
So when the Prime Minister made the most recent changes in his
ministerial line-up, questions were and are still flying about
what this all means.
This close to the elections, any changes up there is supposed to
mean something, even if it means nothing.
Until now, the ruling National Alliance party has been
consolidating its position and particularly its numbers.
While platitudes and the obligatory pat on the back has gone out
to Government coalition members, in the engine room of the NA,
Parliamentary leader Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare’s announced
wish to return a one-party majority government is an overriding
goal, however distant it might be in reality as public affairs
commentator Susuve Laumaea alluded to in the Sunday Chronicle.
Still a one-party government is a noble enough aim and every party
desires it, particularly the current ruling party.
Why not cap an unprecedented five years in Government by returning
a majority Government, an equally unprecedented feat.
It would of course guarantee the next five years in Government and
for the first time in PNG electoral history, have one political
party govern for a full decade without interruption.
Such dominance would also ensure it is positioned for a third term
after 2012 and thereafter gain in strength and stature.
Politics would stabilise and all things being equal, the nation
should gain through stable economic growth and declining social
ills.
In such a scenario, today’s multiplicity of political parties
would dwindle to just a couple, which would be in Government, or
the Opposition on the strength of philosophical emphasis and
financial muscle, thereby further strengthening PNG’s fluid
politics.
Small parties would be forced to disappear from the face of PNG
politics as the need for political power playing and the numbers
game become obsolete.
So if I were in that engine room, I would be strategising to win
55 seats in Parliament in the next election, give or take a few
more.
That would give me control of Parliament and the number to pass
almost everything except Constitutional laws.
A strong solid one or two-party coalition would enable me to
muster the three-quarter majority (73) required for constitutional
change and I can trade with the Opposition (if there is one) to
obtain absolute majority of 84 for the rare occurrences when that
number is required.
To arrive at that peak position of almost total power allowable
under a Parliamentary democracy, I would just now be strategising
to merge with and subsume existing parties which can be
extinguished for good.
I would be moving to weaken the positions of others which resist
such a strategy and then I would isolate the enemy and direct all
energy and resources at that enemy.
In PNG, such a move as I outline above would come up against not
just party politics but something far more powerful and more
insidious and therefore difficult to subsume – regional politics.
Regional politics is far more powerful than party politics because
strength can be mustered quite suddenly across political party
lines, across business lines and across whatever other association
within hours or days if necessary.
It is a remnant of the tribal instinct, if you like, to stick with
the brother and a very powerful rallying call.
Regional politics have become an important part of PNG politics in
the distributions of jobs, goods and services over the years.
I feel that such a move as I have outlined above appears to be
happening in the current political scheme of things.
Moves have been afoot for quite a while to merge with those one or
two-man parties which are close to Government or are within the
governing coalition.
Loose Members have been snapped up into the National Alliance
lair.
Now the battle lines are being drawn.
Sir Julius Chan’s faction of the People’s Progress Party, the
People’s Democratic Movement of Paias Wingti and the New
Generation Party led by former NA stalwart, Bart Philemon, have
already thrown down the gauntlet and moved for an all-out war
against the National Alliance in June.
They are talking to each other and the message is very simple: “We
work together. Share our second and third preferences and then
support the party with the biggest number of MPs returned for the
top post.”
The National Alliance will answer that challenge with nothing less
than the full might of the Government and everything else it can
muster.
On the wings await those in the likes of the People’s Party’s
Peter Ipatas and the Conservative Party of suspended Southern
Highlands governor Hami Yawari, who have put up their hand and
expressed a desire to become the next prime minister.
Considering that both hail from the Highlands region, they will be
viewed by the National Alliance as more the foe than friend.
So the battle is joined so to speak.
In the middle sit the Opposition leader Peter O’Neill’s People’s
National Congress, Treasurer Sir Rabbie Namaliu’s Pangu Pati,
Works Minister Gabriel Kapris’ People’s Action Party, Mining
Minister Sam Akoitai’s United Resources Party, Justice Minister
Bire Kimisopa’s United Party, Morobe Governor Luther Wenge’s Pipol
First Party and many of the other parties who have expressed no
desire either way yet.
Most will be joining one or the other side before election day.
The National Alliance can take on the individual parties that have
issued the challenge no problem, but I think it is more
circumspect on the regional politics I referred to earlier.
At present, those who appear most willing to take the fight to the
ruling party are those parties whose leadership and membership are
principally Highlands based.
That last thing the NA would want to do is take on a region which
has more than one third of the membership of Parliament. It
supplies 39 MPs.
So with the latest appointments to cabinet of Gumine MP Nick Kuman
and Mendi MP Michael Nali, I feel the NA is strategising to
nullify any Highlands regional cry.
With the latest appointments to cabinet and perhaps one more
principal appointment yet to come at the bureaucratic level, the
Grand Chief can comfortably tell Highlanders: “I have given you
the president of NA (Waghi man Simon Kaiwi), Deputy Prime Minister
(Kandep MP Don Polye) and the Ministers for Inter-Government and
Local Government Affairs (Sam Abal), Justice (Bire Kimisopa),
Environment and Conservation (William Duma), and now Mr Kuman and
Mr Nali.
Since our people choose to have short memories on matters
political, they will overlook the fact that most of these
appointments have come very late in the life of this Parliament
when nothing much can be done with the jobs – for the people, that
is, the incumbents would benefit tremendously when going into the
elections.
And that, as far as I can tell, is the state of the play of our
favourite game thus far.
 
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