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by JOHN
MARTINKUS
Factions fight to control Timor
THE votes cast in the April 9 first
round of Timor Leste’s presidential elections have been counted.
Only preliminary results are available at this stage, but these
indicate a second round will be required on May 8 between the
first round winner Francisco “Lu Olo” Guterres (of Fretilin which
currently controls the parliament) and prime minister Jose Ramos
Horta.
Guterres accounted for 28.8% of the votes while Ramos Horta 22.5%.
From the results, we can deduce that Fretilin, the former
resistance movement, was the clear winner in a poll which many in
Timor Leste see as a crucial indicator of whether the retiring
president Xanana Gusmao has the electoral clout to secure control
of parliament and become prime minister at the June 30
parliamentary elections.
The political divisions that led to last year’s crisis are
becoming increasingly clear. It is a conflict between those who
are loyal to former prime minister Mari Alkatiri and his Fretilin
Party which fought for Timor Leste’s independence from Indonesia,
and those who believe the future lies with Gusmao, Ramos Horta and
the nascent Democratic Party (PD).
Gusmao’s vision for the future is simple. He has stated repeatedly
that if elected as prime minister, he would approve the release of
the funds, which was set up in 2005 to manage the revenues from
huge oil and gas reserves in the Timor Sea.
Alkatiri and Fretilin maintain they are already spending the money
and that last year’s crisis (which they now squarely say was
caused by Gusmao) has prevented them spending money already
allocated in the national budget.
The other main issue in this election was whether Gusmao was
behind the push to unseat Alkatiri from the prime minister’s
office last year.
Opinion is sharply polarised between those who believe that Gusmao,
backed by the international community, was the driving force
behind last year’s violent events, and those who believe that he
only came out against Fretilin to prevent further disorder.
Most analysts in Australia, which helped Timor Leste gain
independence from Indonesia, have failed to appreciate the depth
of support that Fretilin retains in the east of the country.
As the only Timorese political party that never made concessions
to the Indonesians and never stopped fighting for independence,
Fretilin has an enormous symbolic place in the minds of many who
lost family and suffered fighting for them.
Gusmao’s now very-public opposition to Fretilin has infuriated
many who once revered the charismatic leader. As one senior
Fretilin member Harold Moucho said, “These are the people that
died for Gusmao and now he has betrayed them.”
This division between Gusmao’s supporters and Fretilin loyalists
cuts right through the Timorese society and has caused problems
during this election.
Fretilin complained bitterly when Gusmao came out and attended a
rally for his preferred presidential candidate Ramos Horta, saying
that it was not appropriate for a sitting president to be
politically active.
The European Union electoral observer mission, the most
experienced and credible of all the observer groups in Timor Leste,
noted in its preliminary report that “during the campaign, some
public officials took political positions – from village chiefs up
to the highest national authorities”.
The report went on to identify the CNE (National Election
Commission) spokesman Martinho Gusmao and his public statements in
support of Democratic Party candidate Fernando “Lasama” Araujo.
All through last week, as the person responsible for announcing
the results, Martinho Gusmao, a Catholic priest, was the centre of
attention.
Based on the results from the capital, Dili, he basically called
the election in favour of Ramos Horta, with Araujo as the
runner-up.
The majority of the results were not made available until last
Wednesday – causing a shock when Fretilin moved from third
position to first, after the inclusion of the results from the
Baucau and Lautem districts in the country’s east.
The high support for Fretilin in the east mirrored the divisions
drummed up by leaders last year that resulted in east/ west
violence during the crisis.
But last Saturday, Martinho Gusmao revealed at another press
conference that the counting for key areas of Fretilin support in
the east – Lautem, Viqueque and Lu Olo’s hometown of Ossu – had
not been completed.
He then went on to tell the press the total number of votes in the
biggest eastern city of Baucau was 200,000 higher than registered
voters.
In an electorate of only 520,000, this was an extraordinary claim.
EU observers, however, said there were never any “excess voters”
and Martinho Gusmao was highlighting a mathematical error that had
already been ironed out.
Why would he do this?
As a confessed supporter of third-placed candidate Araujo, the CNE
spokesman may be trying to assist the latter’s calls to have the
vote declared invalid.
Fretilin has repeatedly called for the spokesman to be removed,
issuing another statement this week stating: “The CNE failed to
remove him and since then, he has repeatedly made statements
prejudicial to Fretilin and to the independence and neutrality of
the CNE.”
When asked to respond to accusations of his own personal bias
Martinho Gusmao said simply: “That happens to me everyday. I will
not answer that question.”
The rash of allegations of voting irregularities from all the
losing candidates – including Ramos Horta – contribute to a very
delicate situation where there are already calls to have the vote
recounted.
It is worth noting that these calls of foul play only started when
the majority Fretilin vote was made known.
If any violence erupts in Timor Leste as a consequence of this
Fretilin victory, it will be started not by the former resistance
movement but by those who are already disputing the result ... the
same people who, last year, resorted to violence to remove
Alkatiri from power. – newmatilda
Note: The writer covered the conflict in East Timor from 1995
until 2000. He was resident correspondent in Dili for Associated
Press and Australian Associated Press, from 1998 until 2000. He is
author of “A Dirty Little War” (Random House, 2001), about the
country’s violent passage to independence. And last year, he
co-produced the report “East Timor: Downfall of a Prime Minister”
for SBS TV’s Dateline.
 
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