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by Dr MICHAEL
UNAGE
Who will form the next government?
IT has been predicted that the National
Alliance Party will return to form the next government and that it will
win at least 16 seats in the general election.
The forecast is based on the assumption that the Organic Law on
Integrity of Political Parties and Candidates is binding.
According to that law, the political party with the highest number of
elected Members of Parliament will be requested by the Governor-General
to form government.
Nonetheless, the integrity law is superficial, prejudiced and cannot be
binding.
There is still an existing law that stipulates the election of the prime
minister in Parliament by a simple majority, and not necessarily a
result of the outcome of the elections.
Therefore, political parties aware of this flaw will use it to their
advantage.
Even if the National Alliance is returned with a higher number of MPs
does not necessary mean that it will form the next government.
They have to negotiate with other political parties to consolidate the
simple majority needed on the floor of Parliament.
Given this loop-hole in the integrity law, any party leader has an equal
chance of becoming prime minister, and not necessarily the leader of the
leading party.
Thus, political lobbyists are given the opportunity again to execute
their trade.
Early indications have shown the demarcation of political parties that
are contenders to National Alliance with those that are not.
Opposition toward National Alliance are New Generation Party and the PNG
Party.
The two parties have sign a memorandum of understanding and are going
into the election united to form the next government.
The National Alliance does have other foes as well.
The People’s Labour Party led by Peter Yama has declared war on NA while
Peter Ipatas’ People’s Party had earlier pledge “to destroy” Sir Michael
Somare’s party.
We have learned lately from the media that People Democratic Movement
has joined those common enemies of NA.
On the other hand, there are parties that would stick with the National
Alliance, especially those from the current coalition.
Peter O’Neill’s National Congress Party, the leading party in
opposition, seems indifferent to the political tussle.
Unlike the NA in 2002 declaring an all-out war against PDM, the current
opposition lacks resilience in suggesting an alternative government
while entering the polls.
It has been predicted that the National Congress Party will join forces
with the National Alliance in an attempt to form the Government.
The suspicion of National Alliance merging with National Congress has
been around for quite some time.
An early indication was the move by Nick Kuman and Michael Nali, though
in opposition, they became ministers in the Somare Government, a move
never experienced in the Westminster system of government.
Mr Kuman is back with National Congress for the elections, while Mr Nali
has left PPP to team up with Mr O’Neill.
There are questions as to why there was no grand coalition government
formed.
The one reason that prevented National Congress to merge with NA was to
maintain the credibility of the party.
If O’Neill had moved, this will reflect badly on the chances of National
Congress going into the coming elections.
Thus, he did well by remaining on the fence so that his party can go to
the polls without having to be mocked at.
So far, it is hard to tell if parties in the current coalition will
remain with NA, especially the parties that have MPs in both sides on
the floor of Parliament.
The People’s Action Party, now led by Gabriel Kapris would tend to join
forces with the National Alliance.
The People’s Progress Party, disadvantaged by constant leadership
changes, is unpredictable at the moment.
The affiliation of the many new political parties is yet to be
determined.
If there is going to be any lines drawn at this initial stage, we would
have the New Generation Party, the PNG Party, the People’s Labour Party,
People’s Party and PDM in one camp.
What these parties share in common is their distaste for the way NA ran
the affairs of the nation.
The other camp would comprise NA, People’s Congress Party, and other
parties in the current coalition.
It is most likely that People’s Progress Party will pull out of the
current coalition, after losing Paul Tiensten to NA.
The National Party is yet to make its stance.
As usual, lobbying, wheeling and dealing will be the game after the
election and any camp with the required number will form the next
government.
However, there will be a real test to the integrity law in the
anticipated formation of government, if the leading party fails to
master the numbers to form government.
Thus, for some voters, including this scribe, would like to see early
trend of which party should form government.
Ideally, I would like to see a line drawn between political parties
whose leaders are reformists to those parties that have leaders who are
mere administrators of governance institution.
The political parties that would seek ways to reform the political,
economic and administrative governance in the country to those that
would like to administer and maintain the status quo.
The current government has been merely administrating the reform made by
the previous Morauta government.
They lack the ingenuity as reformist.
Perhaps, voters in the country are given the chance to decide between
reformist and mere administrators.
The assessment below is not based on party platforms but an assessment
of the charisma of party leaders.
In the reformists’ camp, you will find Sir Mekere Morauta (PNG Party),
Bart Philemon (New Generation Party), Jamie Maxtone-Graham (Country
Party), Peter Yama (People’s Labour Party), Bire Kimisopa (United
Party), Peter Ipatas (People’s Party) and Paias Wingti (PDM).
This group of leaders is motivated, innovative and would fight for a
better future for PNG.
It is also believed that new political parties with reform agenda would
join this camp.
In the administrator’s camp, you will have Sir Michael (NA), Sir Rabbie
Namaliu (Pangu), O’Neill (National Congress), Kapris (PAP) and Dame
Carol Kidu (Melanesian Alliance).
Other party leaders not mentioned are those that did not show any
indication of political charisma.
Voters then will have to decide at this stage whether to go for the
reformist or for the administrators.
It is my conviction that the country needs reformist political parties
to form the next government.
There have already been two major reforms of Sir Mekere that have
produced positive results.
Indeed, more minor reforms are required to make this country advance
further.
However, voters may not see things I see and may have their own criteria
for selection.
Early indications during the nomination period reveal that the people’s
mentality has not changed much.
There have been abuses of traffic laws, people going for material
benefit and are parochial in thought.
They have already put their stomach before their heads. Perhaps the idea
of reforming the country may still be far removed from these people.
 
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