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by GRAHAM COOKE
Bambang is still an enigma
WHEN Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
trounced Megawati Soekarnoputri to become Indonesian president in
2004, many foreign affairs experts in Canberra believed
Australia’s giant neighbour was at last making a clean break with
its past.
Here was a new man, a fluent English speaker, committed to the war
on terrorism and a frequent visitor to Australia.
He was Indonesia’s first directly-elected president who had
defeated the incumbent with 61% of the vote.
Indonesia’s previous five presidents had either been dictators or
ineffective ciphers, beholden to political factions and the
military. Surely things would now be different.
Almost three years into his presidency Yudhoyono, or SBY as he is
known both inside and outside his country, has not lived up to
expectations.
In a mid-term analysis, one of Australia’s foremost Indonesia
watchers, Ken Ward, said that he found it difficult to understand
why the president had done so little to exploit the fact that he
had been elected with such a large mandate.
Disillusionment began to set in with the announcement of the first
post-Megawati cabinet.
Ward, a former senior analyst for Indonesia with the Office of
National Assessments, said it had been little different from any
of the cabinets of the previous six years “a coalition-style
rainbow combination of party politicians, technocrats and retired
military officers”.
Speaking to a meeting of the Canberra branch of the Australian
Institute of International Affairs, Ward said SBY had allowed his
authority to be flouted over a “clearly-expressed preference” that
his ministers not hold positions in any of the country’s numerous
and often tumultuous political parties.
“His own vice-president, Jusuf Kalla, ignored this by standing and
winning the chairmanship of the Golkar Party.
“As a result, the political parties have become increasingly
confident and feel much stronger than I believe they should,” he
said.
The fact is many of SBY’s ministers have spent much of their time
playing politics to the detriment of their portfolios.
Alwi Shihab, appointed people’s welfare minister, busied himself
with the establishment of a new political party.
Regional development minister Saifullah Jusuf spent months
negotiating a move from the National Awakening Party (PKB) to the
United Development Party (PPP).
And yet another, small and medium enterprises minister Suryadharma
Ali, was involved in a lengthy campaign that eventually saw him
take the chairmanship of the PPP.
As a result, the government’s once-overwhelming popularity has
begun to decline – from a 67% approval rating as late as December
to 49% in March, resulting in a cabinet reshuffle last month in
which two ministers, state secretary Yusril Ihza Mahendra and
human rights and justice minister Hamid Awaluddin, whose names
have been linked to corruption allegations, were sacked.
Even so, the furore this has caused and the jockeying for position
among the various parties, does not bode well for a smooth second
half of the SBY presidency.
On the international front, apart from some local efforts to curb
the often illegal burning-off of forests, Indonesia has done
little to stem the haze pollution which has become an annual trial
for people in the region.
The Singapore Institute of International Affairs says the Asean-brokered
Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, signed by Indonesia
five years ago, has still to be ratified by parliament.
The report card is not all negative.
Ward gives the government good marks for its swift response to the
2004 Boxing Day tsunami disaster; SBY’s decision to reduce fuel
subsidies in 2005 and the ending of the Aceh conflict.
More recently, the Singapore Institute points to the successful
completion of an extradition agreement with Singapore as
indicating a willingness to go after corrupt business executives
who are alleged to have stashed millions of dollars in stolen
state funds in neighbouring countries.
Despite this uneven performance, Ward believes the SBY-Kalla
ticket will be returned at the next election, scheduled for 2009,
one of the reasons being the poor quality of candidates they are
likely to face.
Indonesians seem incapable of dumping their political heavyweights
even when they are clearly spent forces.
Thus despite her resounding defeat in 2004, Megawati has been
nominated again by her Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDIP)
and is likely to provide the main opposition.
During this period Australia-Indonesia relations had continued on
their familiar bumpy way.
Australian prime minister John Howard attended the SBY
inauguration, and was quick to announce a massive aid package
after the tsunami struck.
The visit of SBY to Australia in 2005 was considered the most
successful an Indonesian president has ever made.
Yet by the following year, the Indonesian ambassador had been
recalled amid a hail of angry rhetoric from Jakarta over the
granting of temporary visas to a group of Papuan asylum seekers.
Ward’s view is that there are still many Indonesians who believe
Australia is secretly working towards Papuan independence.
“The lesson from this is that we have to be patient,” he says. “As
long as eastern Indonesia is regarded as unstable by the
Indonesian government there will be a suspicion that Australia has
evil intentions there. I think we will have to live with that
situation.”
It seems that halfway through his term, SBY remains an enigma.
Ward agrees, saying he has found SBY one of the most difficult of
Indonesia’s six presidents to fathom.
“In particular, I find it hard to understand to what extent he
enjoys the exercise of presidential power,” he says. –
onlineopinion
Note: The writer has been a journalist
for more than four decades, having worked in England, Northern
Ireland, New Zealand and Australia, until recently covering the
diplomatic round for The Canberra Times. He believes an interest
in world affairs grew out of his early years playing soccer – “the
truly international game”.
 
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