by
BRIAN GOMEZ
Expect greater prosperity with new government
It is almost like the old days in
terms of post-election strategic planning. There are two political
camps, both apparently confident they will form the next
government.
One camp is meeting in Wewak, where Prime Minister Sir Michael
Somare is still in top position awaiting the outcome of
elimination rounds in his East Sepik provincial seat.
The other camp, led by former prime minister Sir Mekere Morauta
and New Generation Party leader Bart Philemon, told a press
conference in Port Moresby yesterday their “camp” of seven
political parties was meeting in Lae. Another six, they said, were
expected to join them.
The Electoral Commissioner Andrew Trawen said yesterday he
expected to inform Governor-General Sir Paulias Matane this Friday
which political party should be invited to form the next
government.
It appears fairly certain that NA leader Sir Michael Somare, who
is likely to retain his seat, will get the call, as required under
the Integrity Laws.
This is because there is almost no doubt with about half the 109
seats already declared that NA will end up as the party with the
biggest number of seats.
There is even a chance it might top the 19 seats it won in the
2002 national elections.
Based on the 14 seats it has already won and several more, where
its candidates are in the lead, it is almost certain NA will have
more parliamentary seats than combined total of the second and
third most successful parties.
At the time of writing, the second and third positions appear
likely to go to Sir Mekere’s PNG Party and Peter O’Neill’s
People’s National Congress Party, with each winning about six or
seven seats.
NA has already created political history. It is the first
political party since independence to have remained in office for
a full five-year term.
It is now poised to become the first to gain the most seats in a
subsequent national election.
For NA to retain office it will need the support of 55 of the 109
Members of Parliament, and this is what the Wewak and Lae camps
are currently working on.
PNG faces many internal problems that make it difficult for the
country to experience rapid economic growth, but Bottom Line has
argued that whoever leads the country for the next five years will
enjoy a period of unprecedented growth and prosperity.
It is most unlikely any political leader would reverse the highly
successful Somare Government laws that are attracting record
levels of investment into the mining and oil sectors, providing
the basis for a significant development.
Most financial analysts expect commodity prices to remain high for
another couple of years, greatly assisting the incoming government
to improve the level of social services, particularly education
and health.
Bottom Line also believes there are many reasons to believe that
the 2002-07 term of the Somare Government has been the best since
independence.
It is certainly true that it has been the best since the early
1990s. I would argue this is also true of the period after
independence because poor policy advice saw the country adopt a
“hard kina” policy that worked to the detriment especially of
people in the rural sector.
Some detractors have suggested the government’s recent performance
is only because of the tremendous upsurge in government revenues
caused by the big lift in copper, gold and oil prices – one reason
why successive budgets have also been in surplus.
However, this newspaper reported significant improvements in the
country’s economic performance as far back as 2005, less than
three years after the Somare Government had inherited the worst
budget blowout in the country’s history and somewhat before the
huge surge in metal prices.
The managing director of BSP, Garth McIlwain, had told The
National in 2005 that economic conditions were the best he had
seen in 30 years.
While there is always some element of corruption involved in a
country like this, there have also been significant improvements
in governance during this period.
It is very difficult to provide proof that this is so. On a broad
level, balanced and surplus budgets are a sign that national
economic affairs are being well managed, as they have in these
past five years.
But at a broader level improved governance has also been a
hallmark of virtually all state-owned enterprises even though none
have been privatised in the past five years.
Most have been a burden on the public purse almost since
independence and have been bankrupt or almost so at various times
since independence, often because of corrupt practices.
This situation has been turned around in recent years. For
example, Air Niugini has greatly improved its services, added to
its fleet of aircraft and started a new international service to
Honiara and Suva even though is facing some competition for the
first time.
There have been major improvements in the operations of PNG Power,
Telikom PNG and other state instrumentalities, which are now
capable of self-funding their activities and paying dividends to
the national government, their shareholder.
Poor governance and the constant drain on the public purse were
one of the main reasons for the efforts of previous governments to
privatise some of these operations.
Another positive sign is the burgeoning investment in the property
sector, inclusive of commercial and residential construction.
Housing projects for the middle classes are being undertaken in
various parts of the country for the first time in 15 years.
Foreign critics such as Australia’s foreign minister Alexander
Downer are constantly highlighting PNG’s law and order problems,
which certainly remain a serious challenge.
But then how many have cared to note that, along with recently
improved economic conditions, PNG’s police hierarchy have reported
that the rate of serious crimes, particularly murder, has fallen
in 2005 and 2006.
Bottom Line has often raised the importance of creating a
“virtuous cycle” and there is good reason to believe we are in the
midst of one right now, with even better times ahead.
