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By ALISON ANIS
THE high rate of HIV/AIDS prevalence among
the 6.1 million Papua New Guineans will greatly shorten life expectancy
rate and affect the way the people plan for the future.
However, this will not stop the population from growing.
This was the prediction based on the preliminary findings presented by
the Population Projections Task force in Port Moresby last Friday.
Based on assumptions, the findings showed that the population of PNG 23
years from now was projected to be around eight to 10 million,
The task force, which comprises officers from the Departments of
education, and National Planning and Monitoring, National Research
Institute and National Statistical Office, said the projected population
was estimated to fall between the range of 8.7 million and 10.1 million
by year 2030.
Reports from the findings spearheaded by Dr Jeffery Hayes, a consultant
with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), has also taken into
account the HIV/AIDS pandemic.
The report also reported that while the country’s life expectancy was
expected to decrease due to the epidemic, the population was expected to
grow because the birth rate would be higher.
“At this stage you would expect the fertility rate to be higher in most
areas with low infant mortality rate,” Dr Hayes said.
“No one can really tell exactly what is expected in the future because
of the HIV/AIDS.”
He said what the members of the taskforce came up with were assumptions
using the available computer programmes to enter available population
data based on the 2000 census.
 
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