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 by Dr MICHAEL
UNAGE
PM will be
known on Monday
AS the lobbying intensifies, it may be
premature to conclude who will be our next prime minister.
The leader is only elected on the floor of Parliament so the people will
have to wait until that happens.
The new Parliament will sit on Monday.
The National Alliance (NA) won 27 seats in the just-concluded general
election, outperforming all the other parties and its own showing in the
2002 where it obtained 19 seats.
In accordance with the Constitution, the NA has been invited by the
governor-general to form the new government.
The NA claims that along with its coalition partners and some
independents, they have a minimum of 59 MPs giving it the majority it
needs to form the government.
The other camp led by Sir Julius Chan of the People’s Progressive Party
(PPP) has claimed that the situation is still fluid and is working round
the clock to have an alternative government in place.
PNG politics has showed that anything can happen in the eleventh hour.
Thus, the country will be kept in suspense up until that decisive moment
when the prime minister is elected.
Even the choice of parliamentary speaker may not necessarily from the
same camp.
As it is, however, Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare looks the most likely
person to be prime minister.
He has recently stated that he intends to step down within three years
and leave politics.
Some will recall that Sir Michael had expressed similar sentiments in
the past and will regard this as mere rhetoric.
The main opposition to the NA was initially led by Bart Philemon of the
New Generation Party (NGP) and Sir Mekere Morauta of the PNG Party.
But Sir Julius’ unexpected victory in the New Ireland provincial
electorate “persuaded” both men to let him lead the alternate government
instead.
Some quarters find this hard to accept.
First, the people who wanted an alternative government to the NA never
anticipated Sir Julius’ return and they are therefore unprepared for
such a situation.
Second, many see the decision to have him head the alternative prime
minister as ill-conceived and a desperate move.
Sir Julius’ political career has been controversial.
Despite being effective and disciplined, his decision to float the PNG
kina and the controversial Sandline mercenary issue in the Bougainville
crisis angered many people.
But in view of his wealth of experience, he may be more acceptable and
useful as a senior minister or as an adviser to the prime minister.
Even if Sir Michael is elected prime minister, as many expect will be
the case, the leadership of the NA will be scourge to deal with in this
term of Parliament.
Will there be an attempt to oust him?
Philemon tried – within the NA and outside – and failed.
This shows that there is a formidable group working within the caucus of
NA making the Grand Chief increasingly invincible to other political
rivals.
Recently, there have been many calls by local leaders in the Highlands
for the next prime minister to come from the region.
Will Sir Michael relinquish the top post to Don Polye within two years?
Unlike many political leaders, Sir Michael has charisma and is able to
unite MPs.
He is a vote-catcher.
Even his political enemies revere him.
He was once quoted as saying that if he throws a bait, fish on the
coastal areas would be hesitant before getting hooked.
However, in the Highlands, the fish would call for more bait.
The metaphor implies that the Grand Chief is the centre for political
attraction.
Indeed, Peter Ipatas, a great opponent of NA during the campaign period
was seen embracing Sir Michael in the bid to form government.
Surely, Sir Michael has caught a big Highlands fish without even having
to throw a bait.
If the alternative camp is unable to form the new government, it will
have to wait for another chance when the 18-month grace period expires.
By then, we will also see if Sir Michael will indeed relinquish the
prime ministership to any of his four deputies.
The Highlands deputy should get the nod because he has more NA MPs than
his other counterparts, if number is the criterion used to appoint
successors.
With Sinai Brown gone, the island region has to elect its deputy leader,
and there are more capable leaders from that region.
While in the past Sir Michael was able to attract many MPs, we also saw
that many left to form their own political parties that eventually
unseated him.
One of them was Paias Wingti’s PDM.
Sir Michael will find himself in a dilemma.
He has to keep all his troops happy in the first 18 months of his reign
and ensure a smooth handover of the NA leadership to one of his
deputies. The latter may split the party.
If he stays on, the same could also happen which could lead to a
dissolution of his government.
Apart from that, his performance in the next 18 months will also decide
if a vote of no-confidence will be moved against the government.
 
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