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By CHRIS HOGG
What led Shinzo Abe to resign?
Tokyo: Japan’s prime minister
Shinzo Abe has caused a political earthquake, rocking the
establishment with his surprise announcement that he was
stepping down on Wednesday.
The resignation news conference was a spectacle.
Japan’s normally more deferent press corps demanded angrily and
repeatedly: “Why?”
They got little satisfaction from the answers he gave them.
So what is the real reason he has decided to go?
It is possible that a deal was done between grandees in his
party, the Liberal Democrats (LDP), and their opposite numbers
in the opposition.
Japan’s government needs to get parliament to give permission
for the country’s self-defence forces to continue to provide
logistical support to the US military in Afghanistan – a plan
which has been opposed vigorously by the opposition.
Some suspect Abe’s scalp may have been offered in return for
opposition support for the controversial new law.
The United States has put a lot of pressure on the Japanese
government to get the anti-terrorism legislation passed so that
the supply operation for its troops can continue.
Abe’s colleagues may have realised he had become an obstacle to
getting that achieved, and therefore needed to be removed.
But that is not the only possible reason that has been given for
Abe’s decision.
Some analysts talk about concerns over his health – and rumours
that he has been under great “strain” were confirmed by the
chief cabinet spokesman, although he refused to give any further
details.
But Abe has just returned from a three-nation summer tour, and
only last weekend showed no signs of illness during the Apec
regional summit in Australia.
The suddenness of the announcement has of course led to
speculation that there is something more sinister behind it,
perhaps a further scandal that is yet to become public.
As for that, we will just have to wait and see.
It is possible that he has just, at last, come to realise what
others have known for some days now – that he had been so
weakened by the defeat in this summer’s elections for the upper
house of parliament that he was prime minister in name only and
had no power to get anything done.
The loss of the upper house for the first time in his party’s
history did not just mean the opposition could block the
continued deployment on the self-defence forces in support of
the Americans.
It also meant that they could disrupt his whole legislative
programme, should they have chosen to.
And as this first parliamentary skirmish got under way, perhaps
Abe, or more importantly those around him, realised that with
him at the helm, the ship would flounder.
Of course there will be those who say this is just business as
usual.
Japanese prime ministers do not usually last long.
Abe’s predecessor Junichiro Koizumi was unusual because he
lasted five years.
Koizumi’s predecessor, however, had lasted, like Abe, just a
year.
So we are back to the revolving doors of men in grey suits.
Abe will be remembered for the success he had in rebuilding
relationships with China and South Korea.
But he will probably not be remembered for long.
In the meantime, as with any earthquake, there are likely to be
aftershocks in the coming days, as Japan’s governing party tries
to work out what it should do next. – BBC
 
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