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A losing battle against
global warming?
There have been dire warnings about
the danger signs regarding global warming, including a greater
frequency of cyclones and hurricanes and a threat to coastal
communities caused by rising sea levels.
Some countries are adopting various measures to try and minimise
longer term emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon
dioxide.
Most of these are adherents to the Kyoto Protocol, to which PNG
has subscribed as has most European countries.
However, the country that has historically been the world’s
worst polluter, the United States, refused to be party to the
Kyoto agreement, as was the case with Australia.
Both these advanced countries have been enjoying what is
arguably their greatest ever economic boom, but did not want to
jeopardise economic growth.
A major change of heart has taken place in Australia since late
last year following the release of Britain’s Stern report, which
warned that the costs of doing nothing would be much worse than
the cost of not taking immediate action.
The shift in public opinion in Australia was given further
impetus by strong support for action from the country’s business
sector, including companies such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto
whose businesses entail huge emissions of carbon dioxide.
These trends, plus falling popularity of the John Howard
government, encouraged Australia to take the initiative at the
recently concluded 21-nation summit meeting of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (Apec) grouping.
But developing member countries, particularly Malaysia and
China, made it clear the United Nations and the Kyoto Protocol
should continue to be the leading avenue for governmental
efforts to tackle global warming.
Countries like China and India, which are growing rapidly and
hence becoming bigger polluters because of fast rising use of
fossil fuels, are also reluctant to promise cutbacks that would
hinder economic growth.
But China has publicly acknowledged that it needs to become
pro-active because there could be huge impacts on its own
people, potentially undermining the benefits of economic growth.
China earlier this year overtook the US to become the world’s
largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
Even though it has a much larger population, China has a much
smaller economy than the US but its heavy reliance on coal,
especially for power generation, has led to burgeoning levels of
carbon dioxide emissions.
Just before the Apec summit, the Australian Bureau of
Agricultural and Resource Economics published a significant
study* showing that under current policy settings greenhouse gas
emissions within Apec would rise by 130% between 2004 and 2050,
fuelled by strong economic growth and increased population
levels in some countries.
It said that in 2004, the 21 Apec countries accounted for 60% of
world primary energy usage.
This was forecast to fall to 56% by 2050 although energy
consumption would still grow 140% to 13.7 billion tonnes oil
equivalent.
Even then about 85% primary energy would be provided by fossil
fuels – oil (31%), coal (29%) and natural gas (25%) – the worst
contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.
During the intervening years, overall energy demand within Apec
developing economies was forecast to grow by 225%, compared with
75% growth among high income economies.
The ABARE report said that even if the 21 countries adopt the
use of cleaner and more energy efficiency technologies,
including carbon dioxide capture and storage, the emissions
would only be cut by 49%.
And it said that even if this was achieved, the total emissions
in 2050 would still be about 17% higher than in 2004.
On this estimate, the world still emit 24.4 billion tonnes of
carbon dioxide annually by 2050.
Use of new technologies would help the advanced Apec countries
cut emissions 49% below what it would otherwise be, making the
nine billion tonnes of emissions in 2050 about 15% lower than in
2004.
Although the developing member countries would also cut
emissions 49%, their faster economic growth would mean that
overall emissions in 2050 will still be 49% higher at 15.4
billion tonnes of CO2 emissions than in 2004.
The report said that to increase greenhouse gas emissions
further increased terrestrial sinks in forests would be needed
through sustainable forest management and a reduction in
deforestation.
Apec has 54% of the world’s natural forest areas covering some
2,145 million hectares.
More than a third of the region – compared with two thirds in
Papua New Guinea – is under forest cover.
Four Apec countries – Canada, China, the Russian Federation and
the US – account for 1,619 million hectares or 40% of the
world’s total forest area.
It said halving the rate of deforestation in tropical Asian
member countries would lead to an estimated 70% fall in forestry
related emissions by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by about 160
million tonnes.
This is a battle that can be won.
After facing a net loss of over 0.5 million hectares annually
during the 1990s, there has been a net increase of about 1.5
million ha/year in terms of the overall forest cover within Apec.
This was largely due to the planting of more than four million
hectares annually in China with additional increases in forested
areas in Vietnam, the US, Chile and New Zealand.
Note *: The 49-page report “Energy
Security, Clean Technology Development and Climate Change:
Addressing Future Challenges in Apec” is accessible on
www.abare.gov.au
 
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