NO statistics on Papua New Guinea’s national accounts has been released since 2002, making it difficult to analyse the sources and evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
Amy Auster, head of International Economics at the ANZ Banking Group Ltd, said the Government had revised up its estimate for GDP growth this year as well as its growth forecast for next year.
Ms Auster made the comments at a joint ANZ and Port Moresby Chamber of Commerce and Industry (POMCCI) breakfast meeting in Port Moresby yesterday.
She noted that the 2008 Budget assumed growth of 6.6% next year.
Real GDP is now estimated to have risen by 6.2% this year, up from a previous forecast of 5%.
“Since no data on national accounts has been released since 2002, it is difficult to analyse the sources and evolution of GDP growth,” she said.
However, it is clear that both the mining and non-mining sectors were performing strongly.
The budget had estimated non-mining real GDP growth of 6.5% this year and next.
Ms Auster asserted that external balances would continue to support growth, saying that PNG’s foreign exchange reserves had nearly reached US$1.8 billion (K5.3 billion) and would likely hit US$2 billion (K5.9 billion) by the end of this year.
She said confident growth forecasts were supported by the strong results in available data on economic activity.
A revision to inflation data in the first half of this year had taken annual headline inflation to only 1% in the June quarter.
However, trimmed mean inflation had accelerated by more than a percentage point to 2.8% on an annual basis as of June.
Ms Auster is responsible for the economic views and forecasts of the ANZ Bank.