El Nino effect ‘weakening’

 By LAZARUS BIRA

The effect of the strongest El Nino on record continues to weaken after causing disaster for six months in the country, National Weather Service Assistant Director Kasis Inape says.

Kasis, in the seasonal outlook for March to May, said there were indications of declining El Nino.

“All the indicators in the oceans and the atmosphere are showing signs of declining,” said Kasis, the senior climatologist.

“Sea surface temperatures are cooler than normal in the tropical Pacific while the Southern Oscillation Index continues to fall below the El Nino threshold. 

“The international climate models are predicting a return to neutral conditions towards the second half of the year.

“Much of the country is slowing down from the drought, except some of parts of Western which continue to experience drier conditions.

“Though the country is experiencing good rain, it is still premature to suggest that the drought is over.

“It will require some to return to normal. This return to normal situation is dependent on how much rain the country is expected to receive from the remaining two months of the monsoonal season.

“Come May, the country leads into the dry season proper and the chances are that the country may head into drier conditions.

“However, based on the past El Nino events since 1900, around 50 per cent have been followed by a neutral year while 40 per cent was followed by La Nina.”

La Nina is the opposite of El Nino, which brings wetter conditions.