Is B’ville referendum ready?

Focus
We continue Ben Bohane’s feature on Bougainville continuing our section on peace and how referendum ready the region is.

They are unlikely to be a threat to the peace process but are regarded as something of an “insurance policy” for the BRA and pro-independence groups in the unlikely event PNG attempts another military action against Bougainville.
The other group, Me’ekamui U-Vistract, is led by Noah Musingku, who is wanted for financial fraud over his promotion of pyramid money schemes.
Musingku remains a wild card.
He is the only factional leader to be holding weapons and telling his followers not to vote in the upcoming referendum, claiming “we are already independent”.
While the group presents a risk to the peace process and upcoming referendum, they have been generally quiet and sequestered in South Bougainville.
On the PNG side, successive governments, particularly the O’Neill government, have wrestled with the referendum process.
For some time, the O’Neill government withheld funding from the ABG and the referendum process as promised under the terms of the BPA.
Bougainvilleans are more hopeful now, however, given the funding provided by the new Marape government and its stated commitment to honour the terms and spirit of the BPA.
To allow more time to register voters and properly fund the referendum, the date of the vote was pushed back from June to October and then November.
Doubts ab out the accuracy of the common roll – as reported following the 2017 PNG elections – have eased somewhat, with a new ward system and voter registration in place.
Outside the immediate region, powers such as China and Indonesia are positioning themselves for the potential outcomes of the referendum.
A Chinese delegation is rumoured to have offered substantial funds in late 2018 to help finance a transition to Bougainville independence, along with offers to invest in mining, tourism and agriculture, with a figure of US$1 billion (K3.4bil) cited. A new port in Bana east of Bougainville was also reportedly discussed.
Indonesia, on the other hand, is likely to be concerned at the prospect of a successful Bougainville referendum lest it create a regional precedent for West Papua, where significant elements of the population are also agitating for a referendum and eventual independence.
Jakarta was “not at all happy” that West Papua had been included on the agenda for the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum in Tuvalu.
Amid these uncertainties, tensions and potential flashpoints, Australia has a responsibility – and an interest – to see that peace is maintained, a credible referendum held, and a negotiated outcome achieved to ensure a lasting peace so that Bougainville does not become a source of regional instability again.

The referendum

The ABG and relations with PNG

Relations between Bougainville leaders and their PNG counterparts have always blown hot and cold. ABG President John Momis was once a supporter of Bougainville autonomy but now backs independence.
Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare would like to see Bougainville remain part of PNG but acknowledges the troubled history between the two.
Some previous PNG prime ministers such as Sir Julius Chan, Paias Wingti, and Sir Rabbie Namaliu, tried to retake Bougainville by force.
Others, such as Sir William Skate, Sir Mekere Morauta and Peter O’Neill, have allowed the peace process to unfold.
There were disputes over the lack of promised budget funding by the O’Neill government.
O’Neill gave mixed signals as to his policy on Bougainville during his term, with insiders privately saying he had no intention of ratifying the vote and was seeking to delay the referendum and final decision for as long as possible.
Momis had become increasingly strident in his criticism of the parliament in Waigani before the recent change of government, and claimed that PNG was trying to “sabotage” the referendum.
However, various concessions in the last year of that government – on the referendum question, enrolment of non-resident Bougainvilleans and allocation of funds to the BRC – suggested that a referendum would have proceeded, although not necessarily been ratified, under the O’Neill government.
Anecdotal evidence and media commentary in the lead up to the referendum suggest that while the PNG government would strongly prefer Bougainville to remain part of PNG, sentiments across parliament are not uniform.
A number of influential politicians have declared that PNG should “give political independence to Bougainville”, alongside calls for West Papuan independence.
Some PNGDF sources suggest PNG would be better off “cutting Bougainville loose”.
This would allow PNG to focus defences on its Indonesian border and the potential for unrest there, rather than its eastern border.
The PNGDF has no greater resources today than it had 20 or 30 years ago and is ill prepared for military action in Bougainville.
Some Papua New Guineans cite concerns that a vote for independence may contribute to a potential “unravelling” of PNG and spark a domino effect in other provinces. New Ireland and East New Britain, for example, have long aspired to greater autonomy from PNG.
The new PNG government is making progress on the referendum issue. Sir Puka Temu, PNG’s new Minister for Bougainville Affairs, is married to a Bougainvillean and is well regarded there.
In his short tenure as minister he has already made significant efforts to engage with Bougainvilleans.
Prime Minister Marape has spoken positively about the referendum process and in September 2019 addressed the Bougainville House of Representatives, where he announced a 10-year K1 billion infrastructure plan for Bougainville to foster economic independence.
PNG’s preference on the result of the referendum is clear, however.
In parliament in late August, Marape expressed his administration’s preference for the “greater autonomy arrangement” rather than independence but added “(the) government will not deviate from the spirit of the 2001 Peace Agreement”.

Is Bougainville ready?

While it has limited funds and human resources, the ABG is working to prepare for the referendum in November.
The cost of the referendum is being met by a combination of funding including from PNG and Australia and from external partners such as the UN Peacebuilding Fund.
Former Irish Taoiseach (prime minister) Bertie Ahern was appointed chair of the referendum commission in late 2018 and is working with PNG and Bougainville to ensure a legitimate and successful referendum. The referendum presents significant challenges on issues such as voter registration, public awareness, and security.
Updating the common roll is one of the most important tasks, but the Referendum Commissioner claims to be confident of being ready in time.
The ABG has a process in place in which its 33 constituencies take steps to declare themselves “referendum ready”, which all have now done.
Bougainvilleans want the referendum to happen in a free and fair manner, and some have expressed frustrations with the lack of information on the process, including registration of voters.
However, a six-week delay to the referendum from October to November has allowed more time for preparation, and the new Marape Government in Port Moresby appears more committed to the process than the previous administration.
Concerns about lack of information are real.
There is currently no PNG or Australian news radio service available in Bougainville. PNG’s NBC service only reaches Buka and parts of North Bougainville.
Although the United Nations promised to assist with communications and awareness, there is little evidence of this apart from a television screen outside the main market in Arawa and a recent “roadshow tour” by UN, PNG Government and ABG officials.
There is a referendum website which provides basic information, and while the ABG’s own website is a good source of general information and ABG-related news, there is very little news reporting and analysis within Bougainville.
News arrives via flown-in copies of PNG’s Post-Courier and The National newspapers to Buka, limited cable TV at some guest houses in Arawa, and reports from Buka-based New Dawn FM news. In this information-poor environment, many Bougainvilleans (particularly in urban areas) rely on social media including Facebook pages such as Voice-Bougainville and Bougainville Forum, but even this is limited, with patchy internet access across the province.
The ABC’s cessation of shortwave broadcasting to the region means it cannot play the role it did in the vote for Timor Leste’s independence.
In Bougainville and elsewhere, the loss of ABC reporting and reach in the Pacific has opened up a void of reliable regional information and undermined Australia’s regional influence. The issue of weapons disposal is another potential obstacle.
Under the BPA, all armed groups in Bougainville were required to surrender their weapons for containment and then destruction under UN supervision.
Significant numbers of weapons have already been destroyed in accordance with this process.
However, a breakaway group – Noah Musingku’s Me’ekamui U-Vistract faction – has so far refused to participate in the process and reportedly retains some weapons.
This has caused concern about the potential for armed groups to disrupt the process, as well as fears that the failure to complete the weapons disposal process could be used by PNG as an excuse to delay or not recognise the outcome of the referendum.
However, the Me’ekamui U-Vistract faction is small, and the disruptive threat it poses to the conduct of the referendum is unlikely to be significant.

After the referendum

A vote for independence, even if it is decisive as expected, would not be conclusive. For independence to proceed under the BPA, the PNG parliament must endorse the outcome.
Under former prime minister Peter O’Neill, it appeared the PNG Government would resist such an outcome, and the new Marape government has expressed a preference for keeping Bougainville within PNG but granting it further autonomy.

Economic viability

A critical question is whether Bougainville has the necessary resources – human and material – to become an independent, economically viable nation.
Among the pressing challenges are those of educating and mobilising a “lost generation” of younger people disenfranchised by the war while forging national unity and bringing integrity to Bougainville’s political system.
Economically, Bougainville’s prospects for self-reliance are very unclear.
According to the formal definition of self-reliance in the BPA, by 2016 Bougainville had reached less than 6 per cent of the necessary internally generated revenue.
Even taking into account all sources of revenue (not just those nominated in the BPA), the most recent estimate is 56 per cent — still a significant shortfall.
The challenges of achieving fiscal self-reliance should not be underestimated, as Sir Puka Temu has pointed out, and would require substantial support from PNG and stakeholders – including Australia – in the region.

  • Tomorrow, we complete this series into Bougainville.

– Lowly Institute