N. Korea dead set on nuke test

By George Lopez
North Korea will soon test its third nuclear device. Earlier tests in 2006 and 2009 drew worldwide condemnation, UN Security Council sanctions and led Pyongyang to withdraw from the six-party talks.
In resolution 2087, passed on Jan 22, the UN council imposed new sanctions on North Korea for its Dec 12 space missile launch and made clear that new violations would be dealt with harshly.
In response, North Korea rejected the council’s legitimacy, asserted its right to nuclear weapons and deterrence and proclaimed it would soon conduct a new nuclear test.
In addition, the North engaged in some strong sabre-rattling aimed at South Korea.
Because some analysts believe this will be a uranium explosion, it is a game-changer for the region and poses new and unfavourable challenges to the UN council.
A successful uranium test indicates that Pyongyang has advanced centrifuge technologies and related support systems.
It means that North Korea, if left unchecked, can both produce and export such material, raising new concerns that North Korea and Iran cooperate in such developments.
Politically, the test will reveal that the new regime of Kim Jong-un exceeds the defiance to UN dictates of his predecessors in pursuing his nation’s nuclear goals.
Neither the prospect of stron­ger sanctions, nor the growing discontent of Russia and China with his behaviour, appears to deter Kim.
These dilemmas confront the permanent five members of the council with a harsh reali­ty check regarding their unity of action and what message to convey to the north via what particular sanctions.
If the council follows the logic of resolution 2087, it will impose more extensive and punishing sanctions than ever before.
Such sanctions will blacklist companies, government agencies and individuals long known for their role in illicit technology procurement and sanctions evasion.
They will expand financial sanctions into areas of banking that would require substantial transnational enforcement to bite, and they may call upon countries in the region to inspect almost all North Korean trade.
The economic squeeze and further isolation of the north will increase substantially.
These sanctions would require China to play an enforcement role against North Korean econo­mic actors it has hitherto resisted.
Seizing prohibited goods that pass through Dalian harbour and other trans-shipment points, as well as shutting down various border activities, would also fall to China.
These extensive sanctions as punishment operate from the assumption that at some point the north will forego its nuclear programme in order to survive as an authoritarian state.
But there may be an alternative to the punishment approach that could bring Beijing on board with effective council action.
China might well accept specialised trade sanctions aimed at forcing Pyongyang that it must return to the negotiating table. – CNN