Weaker El Nino expected this year

 THE El Nino will be weaker this year as indicated by the declining ocean temperatures, according to the National Weather (NWS) says.

NWS assistant director Kasis Inape said the expected warming of the Tropical Pacific Ocean did not occur,  which meant that Papua New Guinea would not expect drier conditions this year.

“During March, April and May there was significant warming of the ocean which informed the climate system for El Nino this year,” Kasis said.

“However, since June the atmosphere has not responded in the typical El Nino style. The easterly trade winds have remained near-normal, resulting in some cooling of the Tropical Pacific Ocean.

“The models are suggesting the El Nino will not be as strong as first thought. It’s possible that an El Nino will not form this year.  

“Five of the eight international climate models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicate that El Nino remains likely to develop by the end of spring. Half the models expected the event to be established by September. 

“Even though the models have eased in their El Nino predictions, the earlier estimate of 70% chance was consistent with the strong development of precursors to an event. 

“With the lack of reinforcement from the atmosphere in the last few months, the models are now less emphatic in their El Nino forecasts. 

“PNG National Weather Service will continue to monitor the situation closely, as El Nino can have strong impacts on rainfall. “