Communist Korea set to complete dynastic transfer of power

NORTH Korea’s communist regime is, by most accounts, set to complete its  second dynastic transfer of power, this time from Kim Jong-il, who has ruled since 1994, to his youngest son, Kim Jong-eun.
The general assembly of North Korea’s Workers’ Party, set to be held  for  the  first  time  in  44 years  later this month, is the clearest sign yet that “dear leader” Kim, who is seriously ill, is passing the crown in the hermit kingdom founded by his father, Kim Il-sung.
One reason why a dynastic succession   is    taking  place is that Il-sung created a nat ional ideology, Juche, which mixes communism and autarky with a heavy dose of Confucian values.
Confucianism exalts an idealised bond between father and son as the model for all human relations, including between ruler and ruled.
So, just as a Confucian son’s absolute duty is to revere his father, the absolute duty of a Confucian subject is to revere the ruler.
Moreover,  Jong-il, like his father, has  consistently  appointed members of his family to positions of power. Indeed,  Jong-eun, the third  son  of   Jong-il and  his   late consort Ko Young-hee, was mooted as his father’s successor almost a year ago.
North Korean propagandists proclaim  Jong-eun “the young general”, but whether he will exercise the same absolutist authority as his father is an open question.
Not only is he young and inexperienced, but his aunt, Kim Kyong-hui,  Jong-il’s sister and the wife of the second-ranking figure in North Korea’s hierarchy, Chang Song-taek, may balk at power slipping through her fingers.
Although rarely seen or heard,  Kyong-hui, born  on   May 30, 1946, to  Il-sung  and   his   first wife Kim Jong-suk, has served in a range of key Workers’ Party positions, including deputy director of the international department and director of the light  industry department.
She became a member of the all-powerful central committee in 1988 – a post she retains to this day.
Kyong-hui’s birth mother died when she was four.
After her father,  Il-sung, remarried, she was raised by various surrogates away from the family.
Observing the relationship between her father and stepmother, and their affection toward her half brothers, she is said to have become embittered and developed a fierce personality.
Indeed, Jong-il is quoted as saying: “When my sister turns violent, no one can stop her. Even I can do nothing.”
When Jong-il started living with his second wife, Kyong-hui  sought to incite trouble, driven by a sense of rivalry.
After marrying Chang, she began living something of a hedonistic life herself, but she scrutinised her husband’s conduct minutely, flying into a jealous range over the slightest signs of infidelity.
 Jong-il has described his sister as “my only blood family whom I was asked to take care of by my mother till the moment she died”.
Their mother, Jong-suk, is said to have died from hemorrhaging  while giving  premature birth  caused  by   her  distress  over Il-sung’s love affair with Kim Song-ae. Il-sung reportedly rushed to the hospital, but the door to her room was locked. When she died, her doctor and Jong-il were the only people present. 
But Chan Giryok, who was Jong-suk’s primary doctor and is now a doctor at Nagoya University in Japan, tells a different story.
According to Chan, Jong-suk was at Kim Il-sung’s Pyongyang home near the Soviet embassy, quarrelling with him.
Watching from afar, the doctor saw Il-sung holding a pistol. The doctor, who was a surgeon, not an obstetrician, questioned the wisdom of summoning him to treat excessive bleeding from a premature delivery.
He believes that he was summoned to treat bleeding caused by something else.
Jong-il, who is known to have had a powerful attachment to his birth mother, had been psychologically affected by witnessing his mother’s killing.
From the moment of his mother’s death, he kept his young sister close to him at all times. Indeed, in a country where trust rarely exists, Kyong-hui is the only blood relation whom Kim Jong-il has ever fully trusted.
Moreover, the two share the same lineage of the Great Leader, or Suryong, linked to Jong-suk on the maternal side, and are fully devoted to the absolute supremacy of the Suryong and hereditary succession.
Speaking before the central committee after  Il-sung’s death, Jong-il said:  “Kim Kyong-hui is myself, the words of Kim Kyong-hui are my words, and instructions issued by Kim Kyong-hui are my instructions.”
Kyong-hui’s intent to exercise power after her brother’s passing is supported by rumours that she helped arrange a traffic accident in June that killed Ri Je-gang, a senior party official and perceived guardian of Jong-eun who reportedly attempted to oust Kyong-hui and her close allies from power.
Whether true or not, such rumours indicate the magnitude of her influence.
There is, indeed, a growing belief that Kim Jong-il might, at any moment, designate Kim Kyong-hui to serve as a caretaker for the third-generation successor after his death.
However, Kyong-hui may have other plans, such as becoming Jong-il’s successor herself.
Even if the “young general” or his aunt turn out not to be unhinged megalomaniacs, the looming changeover opens a new era of uncertainty, particularly given North Korea’s economic woes.
Whether Jong-eun or Kyong-hui intend to soldier on in desperate isolation, or to bring in economic change, they lack the revolutionary credentials and grip on power needed to do so.
So when Jong-il passes from the scene, and political instability meets economic blight, the regime could fall apart.
South Korean president Lee Myung-bak has wisely begun to prepare for that contingency by proposing a special “Unification Tax” to help pay the costs of the Kim dynasty’s eventual disintegration. Japan and the rest of Asia should prepare for that day as well. – Project Syndicate

nYuriko Koike, Japan’s former defence minister and national security adviser, is now cairman of the executive council of the Liberal Democratic Party.