It’s a numbers game, anything can happen

PARLIAMENT clerk Kala Aufa has preempted parliamentary decisions when facts and events were yet to unfold.
Assuming that there is mass defection from the Government side, the scenario changes drastically as in 2011.
Aufa’s media stunt was a convenient throw for Prime Minister James Marape and it gives a catch to the Opposition in the looming motion of no confidence in November’s sitting.
Aufa said no motion of no confidence could be moved during the grace period which expires on Nov 30.
That’s correct in law but that the law is one thing and political numbers on the floor is another thing.
Numbers dictate what occurs or decisions to be taken on the floor.
Marape can even be even forced to resign to allow for the election of a new prime minister.
A mass defection changes the scenario considerably.
The law is merely a guide when status quo remains unchanged.
The period when the motion of no confidence is allowed for between Nov 30, 2020 and July 29, 2021 is critical and should be watched carefully for the survival of the Government.
It is only a numbers game now and onwards that will determine when and how to move.

Gima Walo
Melbourne, Australia