More awareness on drought warning

 By James Laraki 

A WARNING issued by the Papua New Guinea National Weather Service (NWS) through the media in April focusing possible development of an El Niño event is of serious concern. Other related warnings in the media were regarding the drop in water level at Sirinumu Dam, which may affect water users in Port Moresby. However, people in the past few weeks were more focused on the political turmoil and may have overlooked such warnings. 

But we need to make awareness and further extend such warnings for the understanding of the common public, especially to those that may not be aware. This is essential as such events stand to have serious impacts on the livelihood of the bulk of the population, especially in our rural communities. 

The warning issued by our wea­ther experts is based on their analysis of available climatic data. Analysis by NWS and supported by regional weather services in Australia and New Zealand indicate a 70% probability that an El Niño event will develop during the latter half of the year. It is predicted to be at its peak around October, though this needs to be verified. 

It is unclear at this stage whe­ther this year’s El Niño will be small, moderate or a big event. A big event could mean it would be similar to the one we experience in 1997/98 or worse. Weather experts believe the picture will become clearer in the coming weeks, saying they are continuing to monitor situation.

El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperature along the equator in the Pacific. Patterns observed in the past indicate eastward movement of  a warm water pool, which leads to reduction in cloud cover. 

Reduced cloud cover leads to a reduction in rainfall, resulting in drought in worst affected areas. This leads to faster cooling of the land overnight which can lead to frost in the higher altitude areas of the highlands. A prolonged situation could lead to frosts extended to lower altitude areas that normally do not experience frost conditions.

Since PNG is situated close to the normal warm water pool of the southwest Pacific, the impacts of an El Niño event can be quick and serious. 

It may be possible the severity of the frosts at any particular altitude could increase, but it is impossible to confirm this in the absence of temperature records. 

Depending on their severity, the reduced rainfall and higher frost rate can lead to water shortages, crop losses and famine. These increase the vulnerability of the human population to disease, and dry the vegetation, making it more vulnerable to fire. Surviving vegetation is weakened and, in turn, becomes vulnerable to pest and disease attack. The longer the impact lasts, the longer the recovery period appears to be. 

The last devastating El Niño phenomenon experienced in PNG was in 1997/1998.This event not only resulted  in reduced rainfall but induced for­mation of frost in altitudes above 2100m above mean sea level as well as forest fires. 

Reports indicate more than 1.3 million people were affected to varying degrees mainly due to a lack of food. It was not only impossible to grow food, but accessibility was a problem, especially in many remote communities. Other secondary socio-economic impacts like closure of mines, schools and business houses were experienced. It is reported an estimated total of US$9,173,000 ((K22,345,920.16) was spent on agriculture, food relief, health, nutrition and rural water supply. A considerable amount was spent on logistics as well.

Since 1997, the National Agricultural Re­search Institute (NARI) has researched and developed a number of strategies to cope with likely drought situations following the 1997/98 experience. These strategies in­clude improved crop species, ways to harvest water, fire and frost control measures, and preservation and identifying local foods to provide a nutrition buffer during drought periods. 

Many of the strategies had indigenous origin, with an effort to make improvement to what people already are used doing, or what worked in some certain areas made available to other areas to try out. 

NARI has carried out awareness of these strategies through the media, at provincial shows and other national events, NARI field and open days, and its annual agricultural innovation show. Some of these, especially drought tolerant crop varieties, have been made available to rural areas around the country, which have been considered most vulnerable. Such efforts are continuing.

Despite these efforts, NARI is aware that more needs to be done and cannot achieve anything own its own. It certainly needs support and collaborations of all key stakeholders, including provincial DPIs, NGOs, and LLGs to ensure our rural communities are prepared to cope with the likely impacts of a drought situation.  With food security already a concern with other issues such growing population, raising global food prices, changing diet, and so on, climate change related stresses will only worsen the situation. It is this worrying situation that NARI is concerned with and would like the efforts of all concerned to ensure that our rural communities are to some extent prepared to cope with any climate related stresses, including drought and frost situations.

n In the coming weeks, we will look at what we need to do cope with impacts of an El Niño event, the current gaps, lessons learnt from 1997/98 event and discuss some of the drought coping strategies