More cases to come

The National Main Stories
Glen Mola

By LULU MARK
A DOCTOR says the current increase in the Covid-19 cases in the country is to be expected, and may even reach the thousands between September and December.
Professor Glen Mola, who had warned early last month when the number was still well below 20 that there would be a surge, told The National yesterday the continuing increase would put a strain on the PNG health system.
He therefore urged everyone to work together to “flatten the curve”.
“There is no sudden spike in infections. This is the expected trend of infection,” he said.
“Let’s hope we can flatten the curve sufficiently (and not) to allow our health system to fall over.”
The national total had risen from 15 on July 17 to 136 yesterday – a period of three weeks.
Prof Mola is the head of Obstetrics and Gynecology at the School of Medicine and Health Science, and at the Port Moresby General Hospital.
He said the current increase in the Covid-19 cases was to be expected, with hundreds more of positive infections this month, going up to the thousands in the coming months.
He explained that according to the progress of infections in the world, PNG was always a couple of months behind as regards acute infections such as the Covid-19.
“Most countries were in a latent phase of the infection increase in January to March, and then the number started to climb slowly in March-April and started rising exponentially from May,” he said.
“PNG was in the latent phase of the epidemic from March to May (when the rest of the world was from January to March).
“PNG had an upswing slow-rise trend of the epidemic in June-July (when the rest of the world was in March-April).
“In August we enter the exponential rise part of the epidemic. We will have hundreds of positive test infections and perhaps thousands in September to December.”
But he advised people and authorities to remain calm.
“We must stay calm and handle things as best we can. The fear of the epidemic could be worse than the actual epidemic itself,” he said.
He also advised the Government not to lock down the country too much lest it “fall over economically”.
“It is a fine line and the government will need to take sensible advice – but at regular intervals – because the circumstances of our epidemic will change from week to week,” Prof Mola said.

18 comments

  • A very good advise and a better information here from Prof Mola that the public and the government can consider. Some of us thought lightly about the Pandemic and dwelled on all kinds of assumptions speculated BUT now with the escalation of positive cases it speaks for itself that WE all should primarily take bold stand to be mindful about our own personal health, whom we socialise, where we travel and what we take.

  • Let all PNGeans turn to God Amighty for vure and deliverance. Our churches must now stand up and pray over the attack of cobid19. There is a saying’ You are what you say’. Our Prime Minister and politicians should stop promoting ccovid19 and talk about talk about development issues including unemployment and law and order problems and many other pressung issues du nstead. Let our hralth experts work on covid19 epidemic and stock the nonsences of lockdowns. God Bless PNG.

  • we should die long time ago in December 2019 and early this year..Something is not right somewhere there…I just cannot believe the situation in PNG.

  • There is no trend, apparently things don’t add up! There has to be a trend with this infectious disease. There is obviously no trend, how is it possible that we would have a spike in number of cases without a trend??! There has to be consistency with the trend, it would be completely senseless if we were to graphically represent this situation. I don’t believe this second wave or whatever they call this surge!

  • I totally agree with you Samson, despite our health system and hospitals are not of world class like that of America and China, how is it that we (PNG) have only TWO deaths??? and other countries have deaths in the thousands. From other reports the first death was said that the deceased died from stage 4 cancer.
    I mean this just unbelievable.

    • You must be stupid in your coconut brain. Most people who died around the world where either elderly people or people who had some other pathologies already such as diabetes, asthma or cancer. If you have already a sickness, your immune system is weak already so once the corona virus gets hold of your weak system you will be gone in few weeks or even days.
      Don’t underestimate this virus. It is because of such ignorance that by December we might see between 1000-2000 cases.

  • Papua New Guineans must not fret over this but just take precautionary measures instead of running wild drunk like many young people are doing during the lockdown. I think we have had this virus for a long time and have lived with it without knowing until after China brought into the light. The positive cases are simply due to increased testing but they will all come out of it. The authorities must try not to drive fear into our people because fear alone can kill!

  • I strongly agree with you Jasie, social media should not spike the fear among the people of this nation instead they should provide factual statistical figures and graphical information on how this virus has spread widely within this space of time.

  • I agree with Dr Mola,
    Government should not lock down the country unecessarily, One death is related to stage 4 cancer, how was it recorded as a covid case, please investigate well,. there is too much promotion of Covid and anticipating of PNG having it and it looks like they were looking forward to having it..

    Dont bring unecessary fear and just tell everyone to take care of their health, use social distancing ,avoid meeting in large crowds, allow work and business to continue as normal, but advise all business houses to use health protocols ..

  • Why on Earth would we PNG exercising cynicism which is so despicable to provide skeptical opinions until there is a real surge which detonates to over 150 positive cases…No doubt, in the Times of Noah, men were so worried about pleasure and money and materialism which God Struct them in Flood in just a blink of an eye.
    I see there is no need for panic for COVID virus or what ever it is unless we avoid radical information provided by such Doctors like Glen Mola and others including our Government. Filibustering is bringing us next to calamities and that is outrageously unexceptionable in this times pandemic.

  • Come and see what is happening at waigani stores. People have been selling and chewing betel nut right in front of the stories at all times ignoring the protocols issued by the SOE controller, David Manning. There is simply no enforcement of the protocols issued by the SOE controller. If police men and women cannot enforce it, who else is there to enforce it. Police men and women should not pass the buck. I believe there is no police men and women in Waigani police station to clean up this mess. It is not only for the good of the general public but also for police men and women’s own families and relatives as they also come to interact with others at the same venue. So let us put a stop to the sale and consumption of betel nut in front of the Waigani stores.

  • Most people commenting here seem to believe that this corona virus thing is a flu only or a hoax to create panic among the people. I bet you all know by now that almost 19million people world wide have been infected while around 13million have recovered. Some 800000 people have lost their lives and some 6-7 million are still positive. Those are not just numbers but people we are talking about. In PNG we are panicked because of lousy 100 positive cases. And we should be panicking because social distancing in PNG will never work. The problem here is our broken down health system. The government has been unable to take care of existing disease such as TB or HIV AIDS. Imagine what will happen now with Covid19…. Sorry folks, but this is not a joke, a hoax or fake news. Unfortunately there is a large number of people in PNG who think they are immune from getting the virus. Well, you will be the first ones to get hit by it. All the best. As for me…. I will wear my mask and stay at home until all is over

  • Exercising wisdom, caution; and being responsible & thoughtful is what is needed.

  • PANGU wants to return in 2022 and is doing anything it can to control the media and lure international attention for more funding. The two didn’t die of covid 19 but other diseases as confirmed by the doctors. The scary figures making headlines are only being dictated by the National “Plandamic” control centre. The media is now controlled. Government had made enough billions already from its fat lies. It’s very frustrating now when this government cannot uplift all these unnecessary lock downs. This is white collar corruption by these few heartless and money hungry people. Thank you Hon. Belden Namah for the rescue in instigating legal proceedings for the people.

  • People from Port Moresby are still flying into the other centres. How can we effective contain the pandemic if we allow people to move freely from Port Moresby? People coming from Port Moresby are not quarantined but readily mix with the community. We need a responsible government who are able to effectively deal with the situation.

  • ” WHO CARES, IT WON’T BE ME” is the attitude of many PNGeans and blaming the Government and Health Department to do everything for its people.
    Infections, diseases, accidents,injuries, trauma, deaths from violence etc etc can be prevented if every citizens of PNG respect one another, regulations, laws and abide to instructions and guidelines.Diseases and infections including COVID-19 can controlled if citizens of this nation cooperate.

    Otherwise, we may head towards something worse. If we do, the only answer to whatever worse events ahead is “THE CREATOR LORD ALMIGHTY” END TIMES EVENTS.

  • These Covid19 front liners must not put fear into the general public. This virus came to PNG late last year – 2019 and the beginning of 2020. Our reporters and media must also report in a way that will give hope to the people of this nation and not bringing in fear and panic. To the Government of James Marape (PANGU), please don’t use Covid19 to milk funds for 2022 National Election. The biggest mistake so far this Government has done is by using GOD’s name in everything they do. (refer to the 10 Comandment)

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