Recollection of El Nino events here

 By JAMES LARAKI

Extremes of rainfall or drier conditions in Papua New Guinea are closely associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. 

The Southern Oscillation is the term given to a global phenomenon in which, in the Southern Hemisphere, the temperature of the sea, the air pressure over the sea and the circulation of the air across the sea, move backwards or towards from one extreme to another (to “oscillate” is to move backwards and forwards between two extremes).

The ENSO phenomenon can bring flooding and rain (La Nino) and prolonged dry periods (El Nino) to PNG. 

During an ENSO event, excessively wet periods and dry periods often occur one after the other in a sequence. 

There is a pattern to the Southern Oscillation but it is not a regular one, and is therefore difficult to predict. 

It would clearly be very useful to be able to predict when an ENSO event is going to occur and how seriously it will impact on the country. 

Records of past ENSO events could give an idea of how often do severe ENSO events occur and their impacts were, especially on our food production systems.

Records of ENSO events date back to 1877. 

From 1877 to 1997, eight strong El Nino events were recorded to have been experienced in PNG. 

The recorded events were: 1877–78, 1914, 1940–1941, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997–98. 

There were some incidents, though not serious, recorded in 1902 and 1993–94.

In the past 130 years since 1877, some 19 ENSO events were recorded, suggesting on average one event every six to seven years. 

During the same period, nine strong ENSO events were recorded or on average one event every 14 years. ENSO events in PNG are associated with drought, frost, and flooding triggered by excessive rain. 

Extremes of any of these could lead to severe food shortages and impact on overall livelihoods of rural communities.

 In 11 of the 125 years between 1877 and 2002, some or all severe impacts occurred. 

This is a frequency of every 12 years, on average. 

Over the past 130 years, strong El Niño events have occurred approximately every 14 years and 85 per cent of these events have impacted on food production in PNG. 

It is apparent strong ENSO events do not always have a severe impact on our food production system. 

Of the 11 years in which serious outcomes occurred in PNG, there were only four that were closer in terms of their severity to the 1997 event. 

This suggests on average one such an event could happen every 25 years. So if we try to predict which ENSO events are likely to be as severe as 1997, the historical record suggests the chances of us getting it right is under 50 per cent. 

That means trying to guess when the next severe ENSO event will happen is worthless. 

The chances of getting it right are slim. 

Therefore, rather than worrying about when the next ENSO event will come around, we should continue to do what is necessary to prepare and reduce their severity whenever they happen. 

It could happen this year, next year or in 10 years time. 

Regardless when such events happen, our priority should be on preparedness, to ensure our communities are well prepared to cope whenever they happen. 

The records clearly indicate any ENSO event will almost certainly impact our food production systems. 

This is our concern as the majority of our people eat what they grow. 

But Mother Nature continues to threaten their way of life. 

Climate change related stresses will continue to threaten the way our rural communities produce their foods.

The most imminent risk to PNG posed by climate change is the increased frequency of strong El Niño events and the severe drought conditions likely to be experienced in many parts of the country. 

Our experience of 1997/89 event should give us an idea of how severe El Nino events can impact livelihoods of communities. 

This event is on record as the worst in this respect. 

It’s devastating effects are well documented and are still fresh in our minds. 

We can learn from these records that any severe ENSO event can have different impacts on our food production systems. 

It is obvious any event similar to 1997/98 or worst will certainly have severe impacts on our food production system, leading to severe food shortages.