Tuna stocks under threat

CLIMATE change is driving tuna further to the east, threatening the economic security of several small island states in the Pacific, a study reveals.
Global warming is expected to progressively push tuna populations from the waters of 10 Pacific Small Island Developing States (Sids) into the high seas, disrupting island economies, according to the study “Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate” published on Friday in the journal ‘Nature Sustainability’.
The study explores the impacts of ocean warming on tuna and quantifies the potential financial losses that these Pacific Sids are likely to incur as tuna are redistributed due to climate change.
The modeling demonstrated that if ocean warming continues at current rates the tuna catch in the combined waters of the 10 Pacific Sids (Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tokelau and Tuvalu) is expected to decline by an average of 20 per cent by 2050.
Lead author and the senior director of Tuna Fisheries at Conservation International’s Centre for Oceans Johann Bell said: “This is a climate justice issue.
“The 10 Pacific Sids have a deep economic dependence on tuna but contribute little to global warming.
“In contrast, nations responsible for 60 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions would benefit from the migration of tuna to the high seas.”
The lower tuna catches are expected to reduce the access fees that Pacific Sids receive from distant-water fishing nations to operate in their waters, resulting in annual losses of a total government revenue in the range of 8-17 per cent for some Pacific Sids by 2050 under a high emissions scenario.
Such losses, according to the director general of the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency, Manu Tupou-Roosen, would have serious consequences for governments and Pacific people, who depend on tuna revenue to support livelihoods and vital programmes in key sectors such as education and health.
“The losses are also expected to reduce the financial flexibility needed to assist communities to adapt to climate change,” she said.
Principal fisheries scientist at SPC Simon Nicol said the new modelling showed for the first time that tuna catches were likely to decrease in each of the 10 countries by 2050 under a high GHG scenario.
“Previous modelling indicated that some of the 10 Pacific Sids would be losers and others would be winners from tuna redistribution,” he said.
“This new study shows that all of the 10 tuna-dependent economies will be negatively impacted.”