PNG can fix its problems

IN the three years from 2015 to now, Papua New Guinea has increased its population by 500,000 people.
During this period there was not one significant new mine opened, there was not a significant increase in tourist numbers, nor were there any significant new industries started or old ones significantly expanded.
Minister for National Planning and Monitoring Richard Maru is right to draw attention to the problem – the failure of his Government to satisfactorily look after the eight million people of this country.
With flat revenue and more mouths to feed, two things happen: Those with power will ensure they win, meaning increased corruption; and those without power, the majority, will lose and find it increasingly hard to exist.
Malnutrition will become commonplace.
A temporary respite is being provided by the rise in the copper and nickel price.
Maru has to convince his fellow parliamentarians that there is a crisis and absolute chaos will be the rule if this problem is not comprehensively addressed.
He points out that without change there will be 25 million people by 2050.
A dramatic reduction in the birth rate is required.
The population is growing, almost entirely by natural increase, at 3 per cent per year.
This implies a live birth rate of 4.5 per cent approximately (births 4.5 per cent deaths 1.5 per cent = 3 per centincreased).
Remember the average PNG life expectancy has increased from the low 40s (50 years ago) to the low 60s today (only half as many babies were born in 1960 as were born in 2017).
Only by overseeing a dramatic reduction in the birth rate from the present 300,000-plus per year to around 200,000, can the problem start to be managed.
Secondly, there has to be an absolute focus on production investment.
Developing hydro-power to provide low-cost bulk power to supply industry has to be the highest priority.
Just across the water, on Cape York, is an almost limitless supply of bauxite which with cheap power can be turned into a range of aluminum products that high-cost Australian power prevents happening in Australia.
Cheap power, plus PNG’s abundant supply of natural, gas open the door for developing a range of chemical and plastic industries.
There is a great deal that can be done with agriculture but not with
rice: high value crops like orchids, roses and other flowers, mangoes, durian, dragon fruit.
What Kenya sends to Europe, PNG can grow and send to Asia. Once upon a time PNG was a peanut exporter.
Surely it can be again.
Cattle and pigs present some practical problems but these can be overcome with innovative thinking.
For example, in the Philippines, feedlot cattle are fed on the waste from the canned pineapple industry.
PNG used to export cattle to Indonesia.
To make PNG an agricultural powerhouse demands that the lands chaos is sorted out first.
Large investments in agriculture, demand security of title. In truth all investments in agriculture do.
Politicians, in particular, need to heed Brown Bai when he says rice is not a crop for PNG.
He is right because there simply is inadequate sunlight in much of the country.
To be successful, rice needs wet feet and its head all day in the sun.
Low-cost, reliable electricity opens the door for the processing of fish, fruit and vegetables into higher-value products.
Exporting tuna loins and packing skipjack in tins is okay, but it does not value the raw fish very highly.
Producing high-value frozen meals value the raw material far more highly.
It also provides employment for many people.
There is a rapidly growing food market segment in Europe and North America.
PNG’s poultry industry is an
extremely high-cost producer. Working with the major producers to address the structural problems needed to make the industry internationally competitive will bring two benefits – it will make chicken and eggs more affordable for the struggling populace and open up export markets.
Malaysia is a significant poultry exporter, particularly of value-added products.
Minister Maru, you have identified the problem.
Now with messianic zeal get your fellow parliamentarians to solve it.
It can be done.
Use Lee Kuan Yew as your guide.

R.W. Bolling